FREDDoes the bear flag work? Tested on 933 trades
Not on its own, and Fred hasn't found a version that works yet. Across 933 bear flag trades on 8 markets from 2020 to 2026, after real broker spreads, the setup averaged −12% of the risk per trade (−£1.22 per £10 risked) and reached a 1.5× take profit 27.9% of the time.
Older years vs recent years
2020 to 2023: −11% per trade over 529 trades. 2024 to 2026: −14% per trade over 404 trades.
Is there a version that works?
Not yet. Fred hasn't found a market, timeframe and time of day where this setup made money in both 2020–23 and 2024–26. If it shows on your chart, Fred will say so and rate it amber or red.
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By market
| Market | Trades | Per trade | Hit take profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| US30 (Dow) | 153 | +2% | 35.3% |
| GBPJPY | 121 | −7% | 29.8% |
| NAS100 (Nasdaq) | 27 | −10% | 29.6% |
| GBPUSD | 109 | −10% | 29.4% |
| AUDUSD | 133 | −14% | 25.6% |
| Gold (XAUUSD) | 117 | −15% | 25.6% |
| EURUSD | 135 | −21% | 24.4% |
| USDJPY | 138 | −21% | 23.9% |
By timeframe
| Chart | Trades | Per trade | Hit take profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-minute | 657 | −14% | 26.5% |
| 15-minute | 194 | −11% | 28.9% |
| 1-hour | 82 | +2% | 36.6% |
How Fred tested it
Every time the setup appeared on MT5 price history from 2020 to 2026, Fred entered at the next candle's open, paid the real spread, placed the stop just past the pattern (plus half an average candle) and a take profit 1.5 times the risk. If neither was hit within 48 candles, the trade closed at the last price. "Per trade" is the average result as a share of the amount risked.
Back-tested results, not live trading. Past results don't guarantee future ones. Checked 28 October 2026. All tested patterns · AI chart tools compared