When does the bearish engulfing work best?

In Fred's tests the best version was on GBPUSD, on the 15-minute chart, in the evening (4pm–9pm UK), after price has been rising. It averaged +13% of the risk per trade over 886 trades, and made money in both 2020–23 and 2024–26.

Tested patterns · Sell setup

Does the bearish engulfing work? Tested on 198,295 trades

Q: Does the bearish engulfing work?

Not on its own, but 4 filtered versions did. Across 198,295 bearish engulfing trades on 8 markets from 2020 to 2026, after real broker spreads, the setup averaged −8% of the risk per trade (−£0.78 per £10 risked) and reached a 1.5× take profit 34.6% of the time.

Not on its own, but 4 filtered versions did. Across 198,295 bearish engulfing trades on 8 markets from 2020 to 2026, after real broker spreads, the setup averaged −8% of the risk per trade (−£0.78 per £10 risked) and reached a 1.5× take profit 34.6% of the time.

What it is: A red candle whose body swallows the previous green candle's body, after a rise.

Older years vs recent years

2020 to 2023: −6% per trade over 117,673 trades. 2024 to 2026: −10% per trade over 80,622 trades.

The versions that made money

These made money in both 2020–23 and 2024–26, which is how Fred rates a setup green. Each uses its own best stop and take profit.

GBPUSD · 15-minute chartevening (4pm–9pm UK), after price has been rising+13% per trade · 53% hit target · 886 trades

AUDUSD · 5-minute chartevening (4pm–9pm UK), after price has been rising+18% per trade · 20% hit target · 2,060 trades

AUDUSD · 15-minute chartevening (4pm–9pm UK), after price has been rising+14% per trade · 56% hit target · 842 trades

GBPUSD · 1-hour chartmorning (7am–noon UK), after price has been rising+20% per trade · 28% hit target · 263 trades

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By market

Market	Trades	Per trade	Hit take profit
AUDUSD	27,368	−6%	35.6%
Gold (XAUUSD)	25,748	−6%	35.5%
GBPUSD	28,283	−6%	35.1%
USDJPY	28,750	−7%	35%
EURUSD	27,942	−8%	34.2%
US30 (Dow)	25,209	−8%	34.6%
NAS100 (Nasdaq)	6,589	−8%	35.1%
GBPJPY	28,406	−13%	32.4%

By timeframe

Chart	Trades	Per trade	Hit take profit
5-minute	137,921	−8%	34.3%
15-minute	48,165	−6%	35.2%
1-hour	12,209	−8%	35.7%

How Fred tested it

Every time the setup appeared on MT5 price history from 2020 to 2026, Fred entered at the next candle's open, paid the real spread, placed the stop just past the pattern (plus half an average candle) and a take profit 1.5 times the risk. If neither was hit within 48 candles, the trade closed at the last price. "Per trade" is the average result as a share of the amount risked.

Back-tested results, not live trading. Past results don't guarantee future ones. Checked 28 October 2026. All tested patterns · AI chart tools compared