When does the evening fade (sell) work best?

In Fred's tests the best version was on AUDUSD, on the 5-minute chart, in the evening (4pm–9pm UK), after price has been rising. It averaged +22% of the risk per trade over 3,084 trades, and made money in both 2020–23 and 2024–26.

Tested patterns · Sell setup

Does the evening fade (sell) work? Tested on 37,766 trades

Q: Does the evening fade (sell) work?

Yes, on average, and in both 2020–23 and 2024–26. Across 37,766 evening fade (sell) trades on 8 markets from 2020 to 2026, after real broker spreads, the setup averaged +2% of the risk per trade (+£0.15 per £10 risked) and reached a 1.5× take profit 32% of the time.

Yes, on average, and in both 2020–23 and 2024–26. Across 37,766 evening fade (sell) trades on 8 markets from 2020 to 2026, after real broker spreads, the setup averaged +2% of the risk per trade (+£0.15 per £10 risked) and reached a 1.5× take profit 32% of the time.

What it is: Between 6pm and 9pm UK, after price has risen strongly during the day, a candle closes below the previous candle's low.

Older years vs recent years

2020 to 2023: +2% per trade over 20,625 trades. 2024 to 2026: +1% per trade over 17,141 trades.

The versions that made money

These made money in both 2020–23 and 2024–26, which is how Fred rates a setup green. Each uses its own best stop and take profit.

AUDUSD · 5-minute chartevening (4pm–9pm UK), after price has been rising+22% per trade · 31% hit target · 3,084 trades

GBPJPY · 5-minute chartevening (4pm–9pm UK), after price has been rising+15% per trade · 30% hit target · 3,405 trades

GBPUSD · 5-minute chartevening (4pm–9pm UK), after price has been rising+14% per trade · 36% hit target · 3,185 trades

GBPJPY · 15-minute chartevening (4pm–9pm UK), after price has been rising+15% per trade · 54% hit target · 927 trades

GBPUSD · 15-minute chartevening (4pm–9pm UK), after price has been rising+16% per trade · 50% hit target · 866 trades

USDJPY · 5-minute chartevening (4pm–9pm UK), after price has been rising+7% per trade · 25% hit target · 3,733 trades

AUDUSD · 15-minute chartevening (4pm–9pm UK), after price has been rising+16% per trade · 44% hit target · 860 trades

USDJPY · 15-minute chartevening (4pm–9pm UK), after price has been rising+6% per trade · 51% hit target · 1,041 trades

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By market

Market	Trades	Per trade	Hit take profit
AUDUSD	4,995	+16%	39.9%
GBPUSD	5,145	+11%	34.7%
GBPJPY	5,463	+7%	37.3%
USDJPY	5,862	+6%	35.9%
EURUSD	4,883	−4%	27.1%
US30 (Dow)	4,573	−10%	23.3%
NAS100 (Nasdaq)	1,841	−11%	27.2%
Gold (XAUUSD)	5,004	−13%	25.2%

By timeframe

Chart	Trades	Per trade	Hit take profit
5-minute	29,044	+3%	32.4%
15-minute	7,674	−2%	30.1%
1-hour	1,048	−11%	33.4%

How Fred tested it

Every time the setup appeared on MT5 price history from 2020 to 2026, Fred entered at the next candle's open, paid the real spread, placed the stop just past the pattern (plus half an average candle) and a take profit 1.5 times the risk. If neither was hit within 48 candles, the trade closed at the last price. "Per trade" is the average result as a share of the amount risked.

Back-tested results, not live trading. Past results don't guarantee future ones. Checked 28 October 2026. All tested patterns · AI chart tools compared