When does the london breakout (buy) work best?

In Fred's tests the best version was on USDJPY, on the 1-hour chart, in the morning (7am–noon UK), after price has been rising. It averaged +31% of the risk per trade over 365 trades, and made money in both 2020–23 and 2024–26.

Tested patterns · Buy setup

Does the london breakout (buy) work? Tested on 13,511 trades

Q: Does the london breakout (buy) work?

Not on its own, but 3 filtered versions did. Across 13,511 london breakout (buy) trades on 8 markets from 2020 to 2026, after real broker spreads, the setup averaged +1% of the risk per trade (+£0.08 per £10 risked) and reached a 1.5× take profit 29.8% of the time.

Not on its own, but 3 filtered versions did. Across 13,511 london breakout (buy) trades on 8 markets from 2020 to 2026, after real broker spreads, the setup averaged +1% of the risk per trade (+£0.08 per £10 risked) and reached a 1.5× take profit 29.8% of the time.

What it is: Between 7am and 10am UK, a candle closes above the high of the overnight (midnight to 7am UK) range for the first time today.

Older years vs recent years

2020 to 2023: −1% per trade over 7,851 trades. 2024 to 2026: +3% per trade over 5,660 trades.

The versions that made money

These made money in both 2020–23 and 2024–26, which is how Fred rates a setup green. Each uses its own best stop and take profit.

USDJPY · 1-hour chartmorning (7am–noon UK), after price has been rising+31% per trade · 20% hit target · 365 trades

USDJPY · 15-minute chartmorning (7am–noon UK), after price has been rising+21% per trade · 10% hit target · 422 trades

GBPJPY · 5-minute chartmorning (7am–noon UK), after price has been rising+12% per trade · 4% hit target · 457 trades

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By market

Market	Trades	Per trade	Hit take profit
USDJPY	1,521	+6%	27%
GBPJPY	2,006	+5%	30.3%
GBPUSD	2,219	+1%	32.5%
NAS100 (Nasdaq)	534	+0%	31.5%
Gold (XAUUSD)	1,609	−0%	28.3%
EURUSD	2,128	−1%	32.3%
US30 (Dow)	1,953	−2%	30.8%
AUDUSD	1,541	−3%	24.3%

By timeframe

Chart	Trades	Per trade	Hit take profit
5-minute	4,384	−0%	19.1%
15-minute	4,955	0%	32.1%
1-hour	4,172	+3%	38.3%

How Fred tested it

Every time the setup appeared on MT5 price history from 2020 to 2026, Fred entered at the next candle's open, paid the real spread, placed the stop just past the pattern (plus half an average candle) and a take profit 1.5 times the risk. If neither was hit within 48 candles, the trade closed at the last price. "Per trade" is the average result as a share of the amount risked.

Back-tested results, not live trading. Past results don't guarantee future ones. Checked 28 October 2026. All tested patterns · AI chart tools compared