When does the trend pullback (buy) work best?

In Fred's tests the best version was on GBPJPY, on the 1-hour chart, in the overnight (midnight–7am UK), after price has been rising. It averaged +23% of the risk per trade over 517 trades, and made money in both 2020–23 and 2024–26.

Tested patterns · Buy setup

Does the trend pullback (buy) work? Tested on 237,215 trades

Q: Does the trend pullback (buy) work?

Not on its own, but 6 filtered versions did. Across 237,215 trend pullback (buy) trades on 8 markets from 2020 to 2026, after real broker spreads, the setup averaged −10% of the risk per trade (−£1.00 per £10 risked) and reached a 1.5× take profit 32.1% of the time.

Not on its own, but 6 filtered versions did. Across 237,215 trend pullback (buy) trades on 8 markets from 2020 to 2026, after real broker spreads, the setup averaged −10% of the risk per trade (−£1.00 per £10 risked) and reached a 1.5× take profit 32.1% of the time.

What it is: In an uptrend, price dips back to its 20-candle moving average and the latest candle closes green back above it.

Older years vs recent years

2020 to 2023: −8% per trade over 132,484 trades. 2024 to 2026: −13% per trade over 104,731 trades.

The versions that made money

These made money in both 2020–23 and 2024–26, which is how Fred rates a setup green. Each uses its own best stop and take profit.

GBPJPY · 1-hour chartovernight (midnight–7am UK), after price has been rising+23% per trade · 23% hit target · 517 trades

USDJPY · 5-minute chartmorning (7am–noon UK), after price has been falling+12% per trade · 24% hit target · 1,358 trades

US30 (Dow) · 5-minute chartevening (4pm–9pm UK), after price has been rising+6% per trade · 14% hit target · 3,199 trades

USDJPY · 15-minute chartmorning (7am–noon UK), after price has been falling+20% per trade · 25% hit target · 328 trades

GBPJPY · 1-hour chartevening (4pm–9pm UK), after price has been rising+20% per trade · 21% hit target · 280 trades

US30 (Dow) · 15-minute chartevening (4pm–9pm UK), after price has been rising+12% per trade · 16% hit target · 948 trades

Got a chart open? Upload a screenshot and Fred checks it against six years of tests.

Read my chart free

5 free reads. For learning and demo practice. Not financial advice.

By market

Market	Trades	Per trade	Hit take profit
NAS100 (Nasdaq)	8,982	−3%	34.2%
US30 (Dow)	31,139	−4%	34.1%
Gold (XAUUSD)	32,038	−4%	34.8%
USDJPY	33,816	−7%	33.2%
EURUSD	31,224	−13%	31.2%
AUDUSD	32,173	−13%	31.2%
GBPUSD	32,340	−14%	30.3%
GBPJPY	35,503	−15%	29.7%

By timeframe

Chart	Trades	Per trade	Hit take profit
5-minute	167,067	−12%	31.3%
15-minute	56,218	−7%	33.2%
1-hour	13,930	0%	36.9%

How Fred tested it

Every time the setup appeared on MT5 price history from 2020 to 2026, Fred entered at the next candle's open, paid the real spread, placed the stop just past the pattern (plus half an average candle) and a take profit 1.5 times the risk. If neither was hit within 48 candles, the trade closed at the last price. "Per trade" is the average result as a share of the amount risked.

Back-tested results, not live trading. Past results don't guarantee future ones. Checked 28 October 2026. All tested patterns · AI chart tools compared